Posted by: Richard | December 7, 2014

San Francisco Bay Area and Northern and Central California Forecast Discussion-11/18/2017 – 7AM PST

Short Term Weather 1 to 7 day Forecast Discussion   A high pressure ridge will build into the state over the next several days that will bring mostly fair weather to most of California, although clouds will begin to increase over the north on Sunday ahead of a trough developing in the eastern Pacific. Computer models are suggesting that moisture from this system will reach Northern California Sunday night and Monday with the tail end of a warm front moving into mostly the north bay on Monday. Rainfall amounts with this next system will be much less than Thursday’s storm and the southern extent of the rain is still uncertain.   The weather for the Thanksgiving week is still somewhat in doubt as the computer models are showing run to run differences, but the weather is expected to be unsettled with rain at times continuing in the far north, but mainly partly cloudy weather over Central California as the high pressure ridge over the southwestern Unitied States holds.   Further out in time, the ridge is expected to weaken after the Thanksgiving weekend with the chance of rain increasing the following week. 

Northern and Central California 8 to 15 day extended forecast  The computer models are showing the jet stream further north into the Pacific Northwest at the beginning of the period with a chance of rain in the far north and partly  cloudy weather over central California then the jet stream may again shift further south later in the period with a rain developing over much of the north half of the state later in the period.  Slightly warmer than normal temperatures are expected at the beginning of the period then cooling later in the period.

Northern and Central California 16 to 20 day extended forecast – The latest computer models are showing a trough developing off the California coast that could bring periods of rain for the northern half of California with a chance of rain in much of Central California. Temperatures will average near normal during the period.  



  1. Hi Richard. I have tried to subscribe to your blog and it tells me that I’m already subscribed but I am not receiving anything from you. I’ve checked my spam folder but nothing is appearing there either. Any ideas?

    Also, I’m wondering if you could give me any idea of how El Nino will be affecting Baja California this January? My family is contemplating a trip there in early January and I’m worried about the possibility of heavy rains. I’ve searched for weather models on-line but haven’t been able to find something for that area.
    Thanks much!

    • Hi Susan, I am not sure how to subscribe to my blog,,,,are you wanting notifications. I just assumed people will do what I do which is to bookmark the site and look at it whenever you want. As for January weather in Baja, it would be impossible to get a forecast that far out in time and it is still to early to use El Nino or La Nina to help you as we are not sure which will be true at this point. Generally, Baja weather is similar to San Diego weather which is impacted by the jet stream over California. If you want dependable weather in Mexico in Janary, go further south into Mexico like Puerto Villarta or Cancun and the Yukatan Peninsula where the northern jet stream has not effect. PV is a great city.

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    • Thanks for your comment. Where are you located? This coming week will be quite interesting for the Bay Area as the jet stream will be aimed at Central California and the Sierras which could add quite a bit of snow pack that is much needed to completely end our drought. The idea of notifications is an interesting idea, but I often revise the forecast several times per day. You may not be interested in minor forecast changes.


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