Updated 06/01/17 ENSO Neutral- Jul-Sept 2017 with El Nino Probabilities in the Fall

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored (50 to ~55% chance) through the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017. During May, ENSO-neutral continued, though sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were above average in the east-central Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The latest weekly Niño index values were near +0.5°C in most of the Niño regions, except for the easternmost Niño-1+2, which was at +0.2°C (Fig. 2). The upper-ocean heat content anomaly increased during May (Fig. 3), reflecting the expansion of aboveaverage sub-surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4) in association with a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave. While ocean temperatures were elevated, the atmosphere was close to average. Atmospheric convection anomalies were weak over the central tropical Pacific and Maritime Continent (Fig. 5), while the lower-level and upper-level winds were near average over most of the tropical Pacific. Both the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Equatorial SOI were also near zero. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remains consistent with ENSO-neutral. Many models predict the onset of El Niño (3-month average Niño-3.4 index at or greater than 0.5°C) during the Northern Hemisphere summer (Fig. 6). However, the NCEP CFSv2 and most of the models from the latest runs of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) are now favoring the continuation of ENSO-neutral. These predictions, combined with the near-average atmospheric conditions over the Pacific, have resulted in slightly more confidence for the persistence of ENSO-neutral (50 to ~55% chance). However, chances for El Niño remain elevated (35-50%) relative to the long-term average into the fall. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored (50 to ~55% chance) through the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3- month period). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 13 July 2017. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov. C

Responses

  1. Hope you enjoyed the rain……1-2 inches in S. California and more in Ventura.

    Richard

  2. Pretty soon it will be there and quite a bit I think… 4-8 inches of rain or more in the lowlands with much higher amounts in the orographically favored locations. Perhaps over 20 inches in some mountain areas. Should be a very dangerous storm to some canyon locations as well as coastal areas where the high tides, wind, and flooding makes a high impact.

  3. Thanks very much….I appreciate your interest….I will try to keep you informed of extended Sierra weather in my summary.

  4. Great site! My daughter’s class is studying weather. Her teacher wrote: ” I was wondering if there are any meteorologists out there or just huge weather buffs who would like to come do a presentation to the sixth graders about air and water currents, in particular El Nino years. We’ve been studying it in class but I am not a specialist in this area and would love to have someone with more knowledge explain the factors that influence weather.” I wondered if this us up your alley at all? Let me know if so, and I’ll find out more particulars. Thanks a lot. –Teal

    • Teal,

      Sure I have done this for my kids and several classes at Children’s Health Council where I worked for over 14 years….I would need an internet connection that could be projected onto a screen from my laptop so that I could use visuals and they could see first hand how weather forecasts are done and the forces that causes weather changes……

      What school and what are the ages of the students?

      Richard Stolee

      • Thank you! The kids will love it. These are 6th graders at JLS in Palo Alto. What’s the best way to contact you to work out date/time etc?

        Teal


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