Synopsis: A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85%
chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance).
During March 2024, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to weaken
across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. SST anomalies were coolest in the far eastern
Pacific Ocean, with the latest weekly Niño-1+2 value.. Weekly SST
index values in the other Niño regions were between +0.9 and +1.2. Below-average
subsurface temperatures strengthened (area-averaged index, reflecting the expansion of
negative subsurface anomalies associated with an upwelling Kelvin wave, Low-level
wind anomalies were easterly over the west-central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind
anomalies were mostly near average. Equatorial convection was slightly suppressed around the
Date Line and was near average around Indonesia.. Collectively, the coupled ocean-
atmosphere system reflected the continued weakening of El Niño.
The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024,
with La Niña potentially developing during late summer 2024. The forecast team
continues to favor the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate than statistical
models during this time of year. La Niña tends to follow strong El Niño events, which also
provides added confidence in the model guidance favoring La Niña. In summary, a transition
from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La
Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions.
Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center
website (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives
and analyses are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available
here.
Richard Stolee's Weatherblog 
Hope you enjoyed the rain……1-2 inches in S. California and more in Ventura.
Richard
By: Richard on October 14, 2009
at 12:32 pm
Pretty soon it will be there and quite a bit I think… 4-8 inches of rain or more in the lowlands with much higher amounts in the orographically favored locations. Perhaps over 20 inches in some mountain areas. Should be a very dangerous storm to some canyon locations as well as coastal areas where the high tides, wind, and flooding makes a high impact.
By: Richard on January 16, 2010
at 3:39 pm
Thanks very much….I appreciate your interest….I will try to keep you informed of extended Sierra weather in my summary.
By: Richard on January 24, 2010
at 5:32 am
Great site! My daughter’s class is studying weather. Her teacher wrote: ” I was wondering if there are any meteorologists out there or just huge weather buffs who would like to come do a presentation to the sixth graders about air and water currents, in particular El Nino years. We’ve been studying it in class but I am not a specialist in this area and would love to have someone with more knowledge explain the factors that influence weather.” I wondered if this us up your alley at all? Let me know if so, and I’ll find out more particulars. Thanks a lot. –Teal
By: Teal Derrer on March 8, 2010
at 3:24 pm
Teal,
Sure I have done this for my kids and several classes at Children’s Health Council where I worked for over 14 years….I would need an internet connection that could be projected onto a screen from my laptop so that I could use visuals and they could see first hand how weather forecasts are done and the forces that causes weather changes……
What school and what are the ages of the students?
Richard Stolee
By: Richard on March 10, 2010
at 6:24 am
Thank you! The kids will love it. These are 6th graders at JLS in Palo Alto. What’s the best way to contact you to work out date/time etc?
Teal
By: Teal Derrer on March 10, 2010
at 6:36 am